Orbán’s Ambitions vs. Tusk’s Diplomacy. EU’s Path Forward with Trump

Viktor Orbán was quick to celebrate President-elect Donald Trump’s victory last week – declaring that the duo have big plans for the future. But despite the Hungarian PM’s positioning, is Donald Tusk set to become the actual leader on EU-US relations?

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

1. Oleksandr Kostryba looks at rule of law demands in Ukrainian EU integration
2. Matej Šimalčík explains why CEE should care about the Indo-Pacific
3. Staś Kaleta breaks down his interview Stephanie Fenkart, Director at the International Institute for Peace

Orbán enters European spotlight as US election bet pays off

GLOBAL/REGIONAL

• Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán immediately sought to position himself as a mediator between the US and EU last week, as he did in his previous ‘peace missions.’ He called the Donald Trump win ‘A much needed victory for the World!’ and declared that ‘We have big plans for the future’ – after a call on 6 November.
• Slovak PM Robert Fico said the US elections were a decisive defeat of liberal and progressive ideas, and criticised the media reporting ahead of the elections, saying the result is exactly the opposite of the image that the media tried to create.
• Polish FM Radosław Sikorski, however, said that he is in regular contact with top security officials from both parties. He also reiterated the Polish line that ‘Europe urgently needs to take more responsibility for its security.’
• What does a second Trump term mean for Central and Eastern Europe?

• Polish PM Donald Tusk said that he will soon meet with European leaders – including the French, British, Nordics and Baltics – as well as the head of NATO to discuss transatlantic cooperation and Ukraine in this ‘new political landscape.’
• ‘We will very intensively coordinate cooperation with countries that have a very similar view on the geopolitical and transatlantic situation and situation in Ukraine.’
• ‘Nobody wants the conflict to escalate, and at the same time, nobody wants Ukraine to weaken or even capitulate; this would be a fundamental threat to Poland.’

• Orbán took centre stage as he hosted the European Political Community (EPC) Meeting and European Council (EUCO) Summit on 7 and 8 November – as all of Europe found itself in the ‘black sheep’s pen,’ Albanian PM Edi Rama commented.
• Unsurprisingly, little progress was made on key topics like Ukraine, NATO and global trade. Few outside the ascendent right-wing bloc of the EU agreed with Orbán’s appeasement talks – and although everyone agreed on the need for competitiveness, the Budapest Declaration was not as substantial as hoped for.

• On the sidelines of the EPC meeting, Moldova‘s allies came together to pledge further support for Moldova‘s resilience after recent electoral wins for pro-Western Maia Sandu – including Donald Tusk, Klaus Iohannis, Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer and Giorgia Meloni.

• The leaders of Poland, France and Germany also published a joint statement on 7 November expressing their concern over the political situation in Georgia, adding that they could not support the nation’s EU accession talks without reforms.
• This comes ahead of another week of protests in Tbilisi, including three protests outside the Presidential Palace, City Court and Parliament today.

• All CEE commissioners-to-be (except for one…) have passed their hearings thus far – Piotr Serafin (Poland), Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvia), Marta Kos (Slovenia), Andrius Kubilius (Lithuania), Jozef Síkela (Czechia), Dubravka Šuica (Croatia), Ekaterina Zaharieva (Bulgaria) and Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia). Highlights included:
  • Kos, who stressed a ‘merit-based’ approach to enlargement, promised a new communication strategy and pledged support for Ukraine’s EU integration; What are the next steps for Kyiv’s accession?
  • Kubilius, who urged more EU defence spending and cross-border projects over national initiatives – argued that Russia will spend more on defence in 2025 than the entire EU27, while the US will inevitably be distracted by China;
  • Michael McGrath (Commissioner for Democracy, Justice and Rule of Law), who spoke on the Media Freedom Act and upcoming Digital Fairness Act;
  • Šefčovič, who was eager to distance himself from the pro-China Slovak government, but also remained vague on an EU strategy for China relations.

• European Commission (EC) officials received a warning on 7 November about the ‘real’ threat of espionage, saying that ‘Brussels is one of the world’s biggest spy hubs, with hundreds of active intelligence officers who target our institution.’

• Multiple Russian disinformation campaigns targeting the US elections ramped up their efforts not just to support a Donald Trump victory, but to sow discord about the electoral process and hot-button domestic issues – according to findings shared with Politico by a Russian disinformation research group.

• Apple is set to face the first-ever fine under the EU’s new digital antitrust rules for Big Tech – which would follow a €1.8 billion fine for similar abuses involving Spotify – after the iPhone maker failed to allow developers to steer users to cheaper deals and offers outside of the App Store.

Zelenskyy walks diplomatic tightrope in first talks with Trump

UKRAINE