No Easy Future

Given that Belarus is critically dependent on Russia, its future relations with the EU will largely be determined by the dynamics of its arrangements with Moscow, which will not hesitate to use its leverage.

In mid-March, the European Union adopted the 2020-and-beyond long-term strategy for the Eastern Partnership (EaP) initiative, which remained practically overlooked. This was not a surprise.  The world is struggling with the coronavirus, and the public in Belarus has its attention drawn to the presidential ‘primaries’ organised by the opposition or tries to guess presidential election scenarios in the light of the unclear epidemiological and oppressive political situation.

Meanwhile, the release of the new EU strategy towards the European Partnership countries coincided with the presentation of an analytical report called Eastern European Futures on potential 2030 scenarios for the EaP countries and their relations with the EU, prepared by the German Marshall Fund of the United States and Visegrad Insight.

The report was publicly presented in Minsk and Kyiv, and later in Prague and Warsaw. Though the events had to take place in the virtual space due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the experts and participants demonstrated engagement in the discussions and touched upon the scenarios of the EU-Belarus relations.